Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
